We’re heading into what should be the strongest part of the year for housing… and the data is not cooperating.
Here’s what I’m seeing right now:
1. Future supply is starting to pull back
Single-family permits are declining, which is a forward-looking indicator.
Builders don’t slow permits unless they see demand softening ahead.
2. Builder confidence just took a hit
Builder sentiment dropped to one of its lowest levels in months, driven by:
rising costs
affordability issues
economic uncertainty
When builders get cautious, supply follows.
🔗 https://lnkd.in/gQn69r-Z?
utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=builder-sentiment-posts-notable-decline-on-economic-uncertainty
3. The bond market isn’t buying stability
Mortgage markets are reacting to constant geopolitical and economic headlines.
Translation:
Volatility remains, and rate stability isn’t here yet.
🔗 https://lnkd.in/gm7N2Xkb
4. The bigger picture
Existing home sales just hit a 9-month low
Builder sentiment is below neutral levels
Buyers are cautious, and affordability is still stretched
This is not a “hot market.”
It’s a hesitant market.
My take
This is where most agents get it wrong.
They wait for the market to “turn.”
But the opportunity is in understanding what kind of market this actually is:
Not a crash
Not a boom
A selective, data-driven market
The agents and loan officers who win in this cycle will:
identify motivated sellers early
understand equity positions
build targeted prospect lists
Not wait for demand to magically show up.
If you’re in real estate or mortgage:
This is not the time to sit back.
This is the time to get precise.
Robert Foreman
Associate Broker | Loan Officer | Data-Driven Real Estate & Mortgage Guidance
📧 robert@livinginphoenix.net
📞 480-415-0783
🏡 Get your home value: ArizonaHouseValues.net
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